The Long Game of Quantum: Power, Policy and Practicality Beyond the Hype
Mon 14 Apr 2025
The quantum community is taking stock by balancing bold ambitions with grounded realities. In recent years, quantum computing has been surrounded by a flurry of excitement, with promises of billion-dollar markets and near-term breakthroughs. But behind the headlines, the path to progress is slower, more complex, and deeply strategic. In a recent discussion, three quantum technology leaders offered a candid view of where the industry really stands—and what is likely to come next.
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Beyond the Hype: A Sector in Motion
Mandy Birch, CEO of TreQ, reflected on how far the ecosystem has come in under a decade. “When I joined the quantum industry back in 2017… we had to do everything full stack in-house… because there was no supply chain.” Today, her firm is one of the first aiming to bring modularity and manufacturability to quantum computing. “There’s now over 500 quantum computing companies out there,” she added, “and [we need] a place to bring those all together.”
Quantum computing’s trajectory won’t be a straight line. “I think that we will start seeing an advantage in one particular application and then there will be new classical algorithms that then outperform the breakthrough that happened in quantum,” she said. “So I think it’s going to be rather sinusoidal back and forth for a while… I think that the energy efficiency will be the tipping point overall.”
And when that moment arrives? “This could become the most powerful technology the world has ever known… and I think it’s really important because these benefits could… accumulate across society.”
The Quantum Tipping Point: It Won’t Be Like AI
Ramy Shelbaya, CEO of Quantum Dice, cautioned against applying the same expectations to quantum as we do to generative AI. “Quantum technologies are fundamentally a hardware-based technology… That adoption curve is going to be a little bit slower… Quantum technologies for a long period are going to remain more of a B2B type of thing, more for something for enterprises to use.”
He doesn’t expect a ‘ChatGPT moment’—instead, gradual enterprise adoption through very specific use cases like secure randomness and quantum-enhanced cryptography. “People don’t necessarily need to be aware of [quantum], but they will see the benefits… It’s going to be more or less like GPS navigation today… and they don’t need to know that.”
Quantum Dice’s focus is on verifiable quantum entropy, used in high-speed random number generation for trusted cybersecurity. “The technology is not just about novelty—it’s about building systems where you can prove the randomness, which is foundational for security.”
Sovereignty, Scale, and the Infrastructure Layer
Dr. Andrei Dragomir, CEO of Aquark Technologies, sees the most immediate potential in quantum sensing and timing systems. “So the moment the technology becomes accessible, the moment we solve the supply chain, the moment we can build thousands at a time and they’re easy to access—then it will be a tipping point… definitely not on a general consumer level, but more rather on an infrastructure level.”
Dragomir also pointed to early adoption from national governments and defence as key accelerators. “I don’t think there is any single government that would be able to gather the talent altogether… it would take too long if the government gets too much involved… But it is a matter of supporting it.”
He sees a familiar pattern playing out: early proof points via defence and telecoms, followed by broader uptake in transport, logistics, and eventually commercial sectors.
Hype, Hope, and the Responsibility of Quantum
As the conversation turned to the risk of a “quantum hype bubble,” all three leaders called for thoughtful realism. “If we don’t see tangible progress soon,” Shelbaya warned, “the bubble could burst.” But he also challenged the narrative: “Compared to AI, the investment in quantum has been modest—and it’s still early days for the hardware.”
Birch was more pointed: “While I wish there were more modesty in the marketing plans of some of these companies… it backfires with trust… with our clients and the public.” She urged journalists and the wider tech community to help bridge the gap between “deeply technical experts and very surface-level analysis.”
For Birch, the priority is openness and inclusivity. “If we want these benefits to accumulate across society as a whole, we need to develop these technologies differently… That’s one step toward building technology more broadly and having a broader base of people thinking about benefits as we develop it.”
